What is the contribution of changes in female labor supply to the decline of employment in routine jobs observed in the U.S.

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...

Recessions are periods where the labor market deteriorates rapidly. Supporting business conditions to prevent such ...

Highlights from 2025 around the Twelfth District. Discover how the SF Fed engages, listens to communities, and learns from ...

Working papers are academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance ...

As we approach the end of the year, here’s a top five list of our most widely read FRBSF Economic Letter topics in 2025, ...

This paper introduces the U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (USMPD), a novel, public, and regularly updated dataset of financial market data around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy ...

Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we show that firms’ inflation expectations exhibit significant ...