The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a ...

Highlights from 2025 around the Twelfth District. Discover how the SF Fed engages, listens to communities, and learns from ...

Recessions are periods where the labor market deteriorates rapidly. Supporting business conditions to prevent such ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...

As we approach the end of the year, here’s a top five list of our most widely read FRBSF Economic Letter topics in 2025, ...

A decrease in oil supply drives up oil prices, which can raise unemployment and inflation. To counter adverse effects on inflation, a central bank may choose to increase its policy rate, potentially ...

This paper introduces the U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (USMPD), a novel, public, and regularly updated dataset of financial market data around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy ...

Mary C. Daly 2024 Commencement Address at the University of San Francisco School of Management. As we wrap up Zip Code Economies 1.5, we want to know how young people are faring. So we reconnect with ...

Working papers are academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance ...